Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:42:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x372c…931b crypto 282 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-2%) realized −$77 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate65%181W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$47
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$151
other 10% +$37
world 6% +$47
sports 6% −$27
tech 0% $0
culture 0% +$2
politics 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +18.0% +6.8% 62% 62% +0.3%
≤30d 16 +18.0% +6.8% 62% 62% +0.3%
≤90d 57 -30.7% -37.3% 35% 33% -23.2%
all 280 -5.9% -14.9% 65% 35% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 35% -11.5%
10% -23.0% 19% -20.0%
15% -30.4% 10% -27.7%
20% -37.3% 7% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$77
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses181 / 99
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)280 / 282
History coverage103d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2 +$4 +197%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$5 +162%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $67 +$47 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +54%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 +$2 +60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $110 +$22 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$3 +139%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 15 $108 +$44 +41%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 10 $14 −$14 -99%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $9 +$5 +53%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $3 +$4 +137%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5 Apr 08 $5 +$6 +129%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $10 +$1 +15%
Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on March 31? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 01 $38 −$36 -94%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on March 31? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Mar 31 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 31 $8 −$7 -82%
Spread: Bucks (-2.5) Mar 31 $1 $0 +26%
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27? Mar 28 $100 +$13 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 28 $8 −$7 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 28 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 28 $13 −$9 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 28 $22 −$19 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 28 $3 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 28 $21 −$5 -22%
Will Karoline Leavitt be less than 5 minutes late to the next press br Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Mar 28 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 28 $7 −$4 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 28 $73 −$72 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $14 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 27h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 31¢ $5 41h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $2 41h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $1 41h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 41h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $67 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 37¢ $3 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $132 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $4 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $13 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $2 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $97 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 4d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 68¢ $14 40d
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) SELL Yaroslav Amosov 99¢ $14 40d
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Yaroslav Amosov 64¢ $7 40d
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) SELL Roman Kopylov 99¢ $7 40d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $5 40d
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Yaroslav Amosov 64¢ $2 40d
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) BUY Roman Kopylov 41¢ $3 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.10 · official $113.10 (match) · 1166 history records