Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:37:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x372a…b924
sports · 367 markets active 1h ago
5.5score
+$218 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$219 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized+$219
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses201 / 157
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions9
Markets (closed)358 / 367
History coverage115d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 9 History 358 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$80
14 days+$101
30 days+$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Over 59¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+69%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Under 53¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+89%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Over 47¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+113%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Under 55¢ 53¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 59¢ 60¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 51¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Over 57¢ 50¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Over 54¢ 55¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Under 54¢ 55¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 44¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +78%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +9%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +31%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$10 +109%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $10 +$15 +146%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $2 +$3 +111%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $24 +$23 +93%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $5 −$2 -47%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$3 +146%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +46%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$2 +83%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +62%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 11 $2 +$3 +119%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $8 +$7 +93%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $11 +$7 +57%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $12 +$21 +180%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $6 +$4 +73%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $3 +$2 +60%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 08 $3 +$2 +65%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $7 +$8 +109%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $3 +$2 +73%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $2 +$3 +140%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $3 +$2 +70%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 02 $3 +$2 +97%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 Jun 02 $4 +$4 +97%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 02 $6 +$4 +60%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 02 $29 +$13 +46%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 May 20 $5 +$4 +97%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 20 $5 +$4 +83%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 20 $6 +$5 +70%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $12 +$17 +149%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5 May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 75% +$161
other 24% +$51
world 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 41m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 44¢ $2 58m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $3 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $4 3h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 17h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 17h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 18h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 18h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 18h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 19h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 19h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 22h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $2 23h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 26h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 26h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $3 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $3 26h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $3 27h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $4 27h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $3 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $3 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $4 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $2 29h
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel BUY Zsombor Piros 65¢ $3 30h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 39¢ $2 47h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 65¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +19.9% +8.5% 63% 61% +30.1%
≤30d 77 +27.5% +15.4% 66% 65% +25.8%
≤90d 297 +10.9% +0.3% 58% 57% +2.3%
all 358 +9.7% -0.7% 56% 56% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 56% +0.5%
10% -10.2% 55% -9.1%
15% -18.9% 50% -17.9%
20% -26.9% 47% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.27 · official $40.27 (match) · 898 history records