Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:32:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

37 0x3728…4288 tech 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d

TRAPdo not copy tech specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$32 (+0%) realized −$107 · open +$139

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR6%break-even

Win rate56%9W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$681per market

Trades / day3.7pace

Kalshi-fit89%portable

Net worth$4,443now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$67

7 days−$286

14 days−$275

30 days−$185

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +6%

net ROI/market (all)-29.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-29.0%	-35.8%	44%	0%	-13.8%
≤30d	16	-22.2%	-29.6%	56%	6%	-10.5%
≤90d	16	-22.2%	-29.6%	56%	6%	-10.5%
all	16	-22.2%	-29.6%	56%	6%	-10.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-29.6%	6%	-10.5%
10%	-36.3%	0%	-19.0%
15%	-42.5%	0%	-26.8%
20%	-48.1%	0%	-34.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 51% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

89% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -22% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -24% → late -20% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$22 vs −$55 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.52 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage

Net worth$4,443

Realized−$107

Unrealized+$139

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses9 / 7

Open positions3

Markets (closed)16 / 19

History coverage20d

Avg bet$681

Trades / day3.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	No	91¢	91¢	$2,639	$2,654	+$14 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?	No	92¢	99¢	$1,647	$1,772	+$126 (+8%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?	No	3¢	3¢	$18	$17	−$1 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June?	Jun 28	$3	−$2	-89%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30?	Jun 27	$612	+$60	+10%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?	Jun 27	$280	+$5	+2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on	Jun 26	$546	+$4	+1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	Jun 25	$949	−$10	-1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	Jun 25	$872	−$198	-23%
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Jun 22	$66	−$43	-65%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	Jun 22	$370	+$17	+5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	Jun 22	$366	−$119	-32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?	Jun 16	$201	+$11	+6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?	Jun 12	$2,020	+$41	+2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	Jun 12	$361	+$39	+11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	Jun 12	$12	−$3	-27%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?	Jun 12	$9	−$8	-90%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Jun 12	$405	+$9	+2%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe	Jun 12	$386	+$13	+3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?	BUY No	3¢	$19	1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	BUY No	92¢	$968	1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?	SELL No	98¢	$979	1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?	SELL No	98¢	$54	1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June?	SELL Yes	3¢	$0	1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	BUY No	92¢	$973	18h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30?	SELL No	98¢	$672	18h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?	SELL No	98¢	$285	18h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	BUY No	88¢	$525	41h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	BUY No	84¢	$182	41h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on	SELL No	98¢	$550	41h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?	BUY No	90¢	$1,620	2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	SELL No	94¢	$939	2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	SELL No	72¢	$674	3d
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	SELL Yes	9¢	$16	5d
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	SELL Yes	66¢	$7	5d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	BUY Yes	50¢	$6	5d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	BUY Yes	50¢	$74	5d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	SELL No	55¢	$14	5d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	SELL No	50¢	$8	5d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	BUY No	55¢	$112	6d
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	BUY Yes	33¢	$66	6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	BUY No	91¢	$395	6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	SELL Yes	98¢	$387	6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	SELL No	63¢	$0	6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	SELL No	63¢	$244	6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June?	BUY Yes	30¢	$3	9d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?	BUY No	95¢	$46	11d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?	BUY No	95¢	$952	11d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	BUY No	97¢	$177	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,443.40 · official $4,443.70 (match) · 77 history records