Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:43:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3725…ad88 crypto 487 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$3,071 (+6%) realized +$4,388 · open −$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%217W / 257L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day2836.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$719now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$4,371
other 1% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 474 +5.9% -4.2% 46% 36% -2.3%
≤30d 474 +5.9% -4.2% 46% 36% -2.3%
≤90d 474 +5.9% -4.2% 46% 36% -2.3%
all 474 +5.9% -4.2% 46% 36% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2836.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 36% -2.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 29% -11.6%
15% -21.7% 24% -20.2%
20% -29.4% 19% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$18 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$719
Realized+$4,388
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses217 / 257
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)474 / 487
History coverage1d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day2836.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 474 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Down 73¢ 78¢ $345 $365 +$20 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Up 80¢ 100¢ $99 $124 +$25 (+25%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? Up 93¢ 92¢ $89 $87 −$1 (-2%)
BNB Up or Down on June 15? Up 69¢ 73¢ $41 $44 +$2 (+6%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Up 25¢ 28¢ $25 $28 +$2 (+10%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Down 79¢ 90¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+14%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 15? Up 80¢ 82¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Up 33¢ 22¢ $8 $6 −$3 (-32%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Up 16¢ 12¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-28%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Down 60¢ 85¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+42%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Up 11¢ 15¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+34%)
Solana Up or Down on June 15? Down 23¢ 2¢ $42 $4 −$39 (-92%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Up 6¢ 16¢ $1 $4 +$2 (+175%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Up 13¢ 10¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Up 45¢ 26¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-43%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$11 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$16 +567%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $70 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$10 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $196 −$6 -3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$3 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $68 −$18 -26%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$6 -20%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $65 +$14 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $895 −$100 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$14 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$24 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $229 +$65 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $577 −$577 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $130 +$48 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$23 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $57 −$7 -12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $84 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $141 +$100 +71%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$4 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $113 +$52 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $282 +$40 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$38 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $276 +$24 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $83 +$17 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $125 +$69 +56%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $44 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $639 −$10 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $413 +$166 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $149 −$25 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $106 +$44 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $585 −$33 -6%
XRP Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $84 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $627 −$25 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$1 -3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $68 +$2 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $213 −$12 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $755 +$51 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1,823 +$215 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $450 +$83 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $16 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $48 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $21 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $21 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $9 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $31 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $22 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $9 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $12 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $158 14m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $718.84 · official $718.84 (match) · 3500 history records