Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3725…bfc3 politics 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%49W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$5
other 28% −$1
crypto 11% −$7
sports 7% −$2
world 4% −$3
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.5% -9.9% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 83 -0.5% -10.0% 5% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 148 -0.4% -9.9% 19% 0% -10.0%
all 183 -0.7% -10.2% 27% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.2%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses49 / 134
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)183 / 186
History coverage99d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $37 $0 -1%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Jun 13 $16 $0 -1%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $30 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10PM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $25 $0 -1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 09 $32 −$1 -4%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 07 $24 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $19 $0 -2%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $13 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $18 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $41 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $44 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 30 $13 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 30 $9 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 30 $45 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 28 $15 $0 -3%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 57m
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 4h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 5h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $9 7h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $2 8h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $6 8h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $2 8h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $10 12h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 13h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 13h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5 14h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5 17h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 19h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 19h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $9 21h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $9 22h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $7 24h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $7 27h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $7 30h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $9 30h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $7 31h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $7 31h
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $5 31h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $7 33h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $5 36h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $5 36h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $6 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $6 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.99 · official $17.99 (match) · 858 history records