Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:29:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3725…1b92 other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$545 (-27%) realized −$543 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%24W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$198
7 days−$198
14 days−$198
30 days−$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$390
tech 33% −$190
sports 14% −$44
world 13% −$79
crypto 3% +$3
politics 3% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -39.8% -45.5% 50% 50% -95.7%
≤30d 2 -39.8% -45.5% 50% 50% -95.7%
≤90d 3 -59.8% -63.7% 33% 33% -97.9%
all 44 -17.9% -25.7% 55% 45% -44.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 45% -44.4%
10% -32.8% 30% -49.7%
15% -39.3% 18% -54.5%
20% -45.3% 7% -59.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -98% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$46 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$543
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses24 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage202d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 17¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $204 −$200 -98%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 29 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? May 17 $228 −$228 -100%
Maduro out by December 31, 2026? Jan 03 $5 +$5 +89%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 03 $400 +$40 +10%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Dec 16 $57 +$3 +5%
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Dec 16 $130 −$68 -53%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Yakutou Brothers (BO3) Dec 14 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) Dec 14 $60 −$20 -33%
UCLA Bruins vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Dec 14 $20 +$4 +22%
Boise State vs. Washington Dec 14 $20 +$4 +22%
LSU Tigers vs. SMU Mustangs Dec 14 $10 +$2 +25%
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Dec 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Canadiens vs. Rangers Dec 14 $40 −$1 -3%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Dec 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Swansea City AFC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-12-13? Dec 14 $20 +$7 +37%
Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $26 +$8 +30%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $7 +$2 +33%
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $20 −$14 -69%
Will Dundee FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $30 −$18 -59%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Dec 13 $10 +$12 +124%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Torino FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $20 +$8 +41%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $20 +$6 +31%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs 500 - Map 2 Winner Dec 13 $8 +$4 +47%
Will Stoke City FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $20 +$8 +39%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Spirit (BO3) Dec 13 $20 +$7 +33%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Yakutou Brothers (BO3) Dec 13 $10 +$2 +19%
Counter-Strike: OG vs 500 (BO3) Dec 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? Dec 13 $215 −$215 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 12 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Dec 12 $14 +$6 +38%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 12 $20 −$1 -4%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Dec 12 $13 +$8 +65%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31? Dec 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? Dec 10 $100 +$14 +14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 195d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 195d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 195d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 195d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 195d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 195d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? BUY Yes 24¢ $22 195d
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? SELL Gold 60¢ $60 195d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? BUY Yes 24¢ $62 195d
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $62 195d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? BUY Yes 60¢ $59 196d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Yakutou Brothers (BO3) BUY Yakutou Brothers 59¢ $20 197d
Will Sevilla FC win on 2025-12-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 197d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) SELL T1 100¢ $49 197d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) BUY Hanwha Life Esports 51¢ $20 197d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) BUY T1 81¢ $40 197d
UCLA Bruins vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs SELL Gonzaga Bulldogs 100¢ $24 197d
UCLA Bruins vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs BUY Gonzaga Bulldogs 82¢ $20 197d
Boise State vs. Washington SELL Washington 100¢ $24 197d
LSU Tigers vs. SMU Mustangs BUY LSU Tigers 80¢ $10 197d
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes BUY West Virginia Mountaineers 77¢ $10 197d
Boise State vs. Washington BUY Washington 82¢ $20 197d
Canadiens vs. Rangers SELL Canadiens 77¢ $18 197d
Hurricanes vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 75¢ $20 197d
Canadiens vs. Rangers SELL Canadiens 87¢ $21 197d
Canadiens vs. Rangers BUY Canadiens 92¢ $20 197d
Canadiens vs. Rangers BUY Canadiens 78¢ $20 197d
Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-12-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 198d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 198d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.09 (match) · 112 history records