Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:20:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3724…dc70 sports 102 markets active 3h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-10%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate61%62W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$20
other 23% −$2
weather 15% $0
culture 2% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.1% -9.6% 70% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 52 -3.3% -12.5% 81% 0% -12.7%
≤90d 52 -3.3% -12.5% 81% 0% -12.7%
all 102 -11.7% -20.1% 61% 19% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 19% -18.9%
10% -27.8% 17% -26.7%
15% -34.8% 15% -33.8%
20% -41.2% 13% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses62 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage114d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 21 $39 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 19 Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 104°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show thi Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +6%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $18 2h
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $19 2h
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $19 2h
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 19 SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 26h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 19 BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 179 history records