Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:40:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
37 0x3723…ca17 other 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$402 (+6%) realized +$414 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate61%22W / 14L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days+$421
14 days+$437
30 days+$437
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$265
sports 29% +$122
politics 11% +$29
crypto 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -6.5% -15.4% 78% 30% -2.7%
≤30d 36 -22.9% -30.3% 61% 28% -3.2%
≤90d 36 -22.9% -30.3% 61% 28% -3.2%
all 36 -22.9% -30.3% 61% 28% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 28% -3.2%
10% -36.9% 17% -12.4%
15% -43.0% 11% -20.9%
20% -48.6% 11% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$7 · ×3.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.47 per $1 lost it wins $5.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$414
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses22 / 14
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage21d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $40 $27 −$12 (-31%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $80 +$23 +28%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $540 +$40 +7%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $543 +$13 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $505 +$38 +7%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $471 +$34 +7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $449 +$48 +11%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $447 +$22 +5%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $399 +$56 +14%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $442 +$17 +4%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $365 +$82 +22%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $338 +$28 +8%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $319 +$13 +4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2 $0 +6%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $72 −$3 -4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $223 +$25 +11%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $190 +$32 +17%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $17 −$7 -42%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$7 +64%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 +$16 +82%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $12 +$9 +73%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $600 +$28 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 91¢ $102 2m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $80 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 96¢ $580 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 89¢ $540 6h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $15 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 98¢ $555 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $543 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 98¢ $543 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $505 32h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $505 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $471 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $496 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $449 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 13¢ $21 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $469 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $447 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $455 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $399 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? AND Wil BUY 60¢ $60 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 91¢ $459 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $442 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 98¢ $447 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $365 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $366 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.81 · official $35.81 (match) · 85 history records