Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:48:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
37 0x3723…1f78 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10 (+8%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%3W / 12L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$6
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$6
sports 23% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-41.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -70.8% -73.6% 12% 12% +1.5%
≤30d 15 -35.7% -41.8% 20% 20% +11.6%
≤90d 15 -35.7% -41.8% 20% 20% +11.6%
all 15 -35.7% -41.8% 20% 20% +11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.8% 20% +11.6%
10% -47.4% 20% +0.9%
15% -52.5% 20% -8.8%
20% -57.1% 7% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -71% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×9.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses3 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage10d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $36 +$16 +46%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 $0 -12%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$8 +249%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -53%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.71 · official $51.71 (match) · 23 history records