Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:41:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3721…1903 politics 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,122 (-1%) realized −$2,123 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate23%32W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,389per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$448now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$12
14 days−$40
30 days+$229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$120
other 29% +$62
sports 12% −$2,093
culture 3% −$6
economics 2% −$5
crypto 2% +$3
world 1% +$3
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 +13.6% +2.8% 18% 12% -9.1%
≤90d 87 -7.8% -16.6% 9% 6% -11.1%
all 141 -1.3% -10.7% 23% 9% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 9% -10.5%
10% -19.3% 9% -19.1%
15% -27.1% 6% -26.9%
20% -34.2% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,743) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$26 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$448
Realized−$2,123
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses32 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage134d
Avg bet$1,389
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $448 $448 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $254 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $218 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,726 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,140 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,863 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,268 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,644 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $4,577 −$6 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,569 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,903 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,862 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,525 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $6,384 −$7 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $4,634 −$6 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 06 $78 +$123 +158%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 04 $60 +$77 +129%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1,215 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,188 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,136 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $485 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 02 $564 +$1 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $648 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,119 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 25 $59 +$19 +32%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 24 $52 +$70 +134%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 22 $2,647 −$5 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,088 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $1,093 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,113 −$4 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $2,715 −$4 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,650 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,612 −$3 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,614 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $4,278 −$5 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $2,988 −$4 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,560 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,559 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $4,247 −$6 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,519 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 04 $1,333 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $254 1h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $254 2h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $218 24h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $218 26h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $266 47h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $267 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $209 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,138 4d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,140 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,274 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,276 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,266 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,268 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $448 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,641 8d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,644 9d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,447 9d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,449 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,567 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,569 9d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,413 10d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,415 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,490 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,492 11d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,523 12d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,525 12d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,646 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,648 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,451 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $448.36 · official $448.36 (match) · 447 history records