Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:55:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3720…7243 crypto 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+3%) realized +$21 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$31
world 22% −$1
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -37.4% -43.3% 33% 33% -20.0%
≤30d 6 -37.4% -43.3% 33% 33% -20.0%
≤90d 6 -37.4% -43.3% 33% 33% -20.0%
all 6 -37.4% -43.3% 33% 33% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.3% 33% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -48.7% 17% -27.6%
15% -53.7% 17% -34.6%
20% -58.2% 0% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$14 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down 63¢ 50¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 7¢ 4¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $56 +$22 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$19 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $56 +$11 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $145 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 7m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $90 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.77 · official $126.33 (match) · 35 history records