Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:57:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
37 0x371e…0f81 sports 555 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,413 (-2%) realized −$977 · open −$436
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate49%265W / 281L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$221est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$747now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$118
7 days−$548
14 days−$924
30 days−$888
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$751
world 31% +$56
other 21% −$1,833
politics 1% +$157
crypto 0% −$1
finance 0% −$18
culture 0% −$7
tech 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -14.1% -22.3% 41% 18% -16.6%
≤30d 91 -17.0% -24.9% 42% 25% -14.3%
≤90d 363 -10.5% -19.0% 46% 34% -10.2%
all 546 -3.8% -13.0% 49% 39% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 39% -12.2%
10% -21.3% 30% -20.6%
15% -28.9% 22% -28.3%
20% -35.9% 15% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$52 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$747
Realized−$977
Unrealized−$436
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses265 / 281
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$221
Open positions9
Markets (closed)546 / 555
History coverage137d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 546 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 19¢ 25¢ $300 $381 +$81 (+27%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 26¢ 7¢ $472 $129 −$343 (-73%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 37¢ 8¢ $144 $32 −$112 (-78%)
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-50%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-98%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $102 +$3 +3%
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $131 −$130 -99%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $101 +$15 +15%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $400 −$400 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $2,258 −$47 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $560 +$78 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $1,630 +$40 +2%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $185 −$185 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $199 −$3 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $306 +$85 +28%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $38 −$37 -99%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $101 −$2 -2%
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $101 −$3 -2%
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $101 −$3 -3%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $101 +$6 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +43%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $79 −$6 -8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $100 −$22 -22%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $101 −$3 -3%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 Jun 08 $102 −$101 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $102 −$57 -56%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $101 +$40 +40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $28 −$8 -28%
Kashima Antlers vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $24 +$4 +15%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $23 +$1 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 +$2 +11%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $91 −$90 -99%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 05 $124 −$15 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $110 +$10 +9%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 03 $61 −$60 -99%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $125 −$34 -27%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 03 $35 −$3 -9%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Jun 03 $5 −$2 -48%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$2 -30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $120 +$52 +44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $495 +$357 +72%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $265 +$64 +24%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $446 −$5 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 01 $102 −$17 -17%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 01 $31 +$4 +13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 01 $150 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $300 1h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $105 1h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 61¢ $97 1h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $98 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $102 1h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $131 32h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $116 34h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $400 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 36¢ $159 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $35 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $219 4d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 74¢ $185 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 71¢ $250 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $150 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL No 57¢ $196 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $391 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $38 5d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? SELL No 69¢ $37 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 58¢ $199 6d
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 61¢ $99 6d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 59¢ $100 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $98 6d
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 78¢ $98 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $98 6d
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $98 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $100 6d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $101 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $108 6d
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 59¢ $107 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $747.35 · official $751.18 (match) · 1346 history records