Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:35:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
37 0x371c…e96f other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 32L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 78% −$13
other 14% +$10
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 1% +$22
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 35 +10.5% -0.0% 29% 17% -7.3%
all 46 +7.9% -2.4% 30% 13% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 13% -9.2%
10% -11.7% 13% -17.9%
15% -20.3% 13% -25.9%
20% -28.1% 11% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage605d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 05 $65 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $83 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $78 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 18 $9 +$8 +79%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $71 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $7 +$10 +140%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $66 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $67 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $68 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $64 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $63 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $64 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $63 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 11 $21 +$1 +6%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $6 +$5 +72%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $12 +$6 +50%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $8 +$5 +59%
Penguins vs. Lightning Apr 06 $11 +$7 +64%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 05 $40 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $11 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 06 $1 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $206 −$2 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $2,012 −$4 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 28 $898 −$4 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $1,503 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $43 1h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 3d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 3d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 4d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 11d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 11d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 12d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 12d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 20d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $11 21d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 21d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 21d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 22d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 22d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 27d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 27d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 28d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 28d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $17 29d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $17 29d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 29d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $78 30d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $78 30d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Milwaukee Brewers 55¢ $9 32d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $71 34d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $71 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.83 · official $53.83 (match) · 300 history records