Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:54:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x371c…c236
world · 143 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$3,218 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,178 · open −$27
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$985
Realized+$2,178
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses64 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions22
Markets (closed)121 / 143
History coverage92d
Avg bet$337
Trades / day36.3
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 22 History 121 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$244
7 days+$1,265
14 days+$1,319
30 days+$1,439
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $286 $267 −$19 (-7%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Yes 51¢ 33¢ $214 $137 −$77 (-36%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 33¢ 39¢ $66 $78 +$13 (+19%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $66 $62 −$4 (-6%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 27¢ 36¢ $28 $37 +$9 (+33%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+15%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Yes 41¢ 52¢ $27 $35 +$8 (+29%)
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $19 $33 +$14 (+75%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 12¢ 21¢ $18 $32 +$14 (+77%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 45¢ 48¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+8%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $35 $27 −$8 (-22%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $7 $26 +$19 (+250%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Yes 41¢ 84¢ $12 $24 +$13 (+106%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $20 $17 −$2 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Kurds declare independence from Iran? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $17 $8 −$9 (-54%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026? No 17¢ 0¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $317 +$156 +49%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $749 +$55 +7%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 14 $437 +$55 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 14 $791 +$28 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $12 $0 +2%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $386 +$1 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $1,198 −$29 -2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 13 $107 −$49 -46%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 13 $161 +$27 +17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $127 +$7 +6%
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? Jun 12 $167 −$126 -76%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $45 −$17 -37%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Jun 11 $7 −$4 -53%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $17 −$14 -82%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 11 $43 +$31 +73%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $120 +$39 +33%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $167 +$81 +48%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -36%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $24 −$22 -90%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $535 −$69 -13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $981 +$704 +72%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $872 +$347 +40%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $432 +$62 +14%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Jun 01 $121 +$53 +44%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $838 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $1,481 +$12 +1%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? May 29 $377 +$3 +1%
Internet Access restored in Iran by December 31, 2026? May 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $376 +$18 +5%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $210 −$96 -46%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $664 −$121 -18%
Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026? May 28 $225 −$91 -40%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? May 27 $174 +$15 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 27 $73 −$47 -64%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 27 $168 −$31 -18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 27 $203 −$145 -72%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $80 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 26 $85 +$40 +47%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 26 $26 +$131 +505%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $7 +$166 +2387%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $11 +$264 +2399%
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2 May 23 $81 −$55 -68%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 23 $764 −$222 -29%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $20 +$285 +1425%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $1,160 +$44 +4%
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026? May 11 $25 −$21 -86%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 29 $101 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 28 $1,258 +$23 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 92% +$2,449
other 6% −$418
finance 3% +$141
politics 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 1m
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 2m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 2m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 2m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 2m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 2m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 75¢ $38 3m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 4m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 77¢ $38 4m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 6m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 75¢ $57 9m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 69¢ $7 11m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $104 11m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 86¢ $35 11m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $34 11m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 75¢ $61 12m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 75¢ $18 12m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $123 12m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 65¢ $47 12m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 65¢ $35 13m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 22m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 35m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 36m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 36m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 37m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 62¢ $3 37m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 63¢ $4 37m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $3 37m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 84¢ $11 38m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -3.2% -12.4% 61% 39% +5.5%
≤30d 47 +116.6% +96.0% 55% 36% +2.7%
≤90d 121 +37.0% +23.9% 53% 26% -3.4%
all 121 +37.0% +23.9% 53% 26% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.9% 26% -3.4%
10% ← realistic here +12.1% 16% -12.7%
15% +1.3% 13% -21.1%
20% -8.7% 8% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $984.86 · official $984.86 (match) · 3500 history records