Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:40:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3719…9f23 crypto 32 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-44%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate25%8W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day57.0pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$24
other 19% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -27.9% -34.7% 25% 22% -53.5%
≤30d 32 -27.9% -34.7% 25% 22% -53.5%
≤90d 32 -27.9% -34.7% 25% 22% -53.5%
all 32 -27.9% -34.7% 25% 22% -53.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.7% 22% -53.5%
10% ← realistic here -41.0% 19% -57.9%
15% -46.7% 19% -62.0%
20% -51.9% 19% -65.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses8 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day57.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +102%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +296%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records