Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3714…1af6 sports 482 markets active 18h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%201W / 268L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$53
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$54
other 18% −$33
politics 17% −$1
world 13% −$8
tech 5% −$10
economics 3% −$15
culture 2% −$6
weather 1% +$8
crypto 1% −$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.3% -9.8% 36% 30% -11.8%
≤30d 149 +1.3% -8.4% 45% 31% -15.1%
≤90d 382 -6.3% -15.2% 39% 30% -16.4%
all 469 -3.8% -13.0% 43% 35% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 35% -10.5%
10% -21.3% 30% -19.0%
15% -28.9% 26% -26.9%
20% -35.9% 20% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses201 / 268
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)469 / 482
History coverage127d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 469 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yennefer of Vengerberg die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? Jun 14 $6 −$2 -34%
Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -20%
Will anyone say "Planet" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr? Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Will Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conferenc Jun 12 $5 −$1 -12%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $5 −$3 -60%
Will Love Island USA be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -57%
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -5%
Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French p Jun 12 $6 −$2 -32%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French Jun 12 $6 −$1 -22%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti Jun 12 $6 +$5 +88%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? Jun 12 $6 +$3 +54%
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 11 $3 $0 -4%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 11 $6 $0 -6%
Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May? Jun 11 $6 +$4 +72%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 11 $6 +$5 +75%
Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 10 $6 $0 -6%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 09 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 09 $6 $0 -8%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May? Jun 09 $11 −$1 -9%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 09 $16 −$2 -9%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May? Jun 09 $25 −$4 -17%
Will Mark Smith be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -21%
Will Maria Wanjera Ghimenton win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral Jun 08 $5 +$4 +84%
Will Luca Pozzobon win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral election? Jun 08 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Luigi Petrone win the 2026 Cava De' Tirreni mayoral election? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Giuseppe Tortora win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election? Jun 08 $4 $0 -4%
Will Raffaele Giordano win the 2026 Cava De' Tirreni mayoral election? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +26%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Giovanni Legnini win the 2026 Chieti mayoral election? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 06 $5 −$1 -28%
Will Pietro Mastropasqua win the 2026 Molfetta mayoral election? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele Jun 06 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Mario Almici win the 2026 Legnano mayoral election? Jun 05 $1 $0 -14%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 05 $5 −$3 -59%
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primar Jun 05 $1 $0 +45%
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 05 $1 $0 +7%
Will "Liberation" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 05 $18 −$4 -20%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 05 $11 +$2 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $11 $0 -3%
Will Anna De Gaio win the 2026 Castrovillari mayoral election? Jun 04 $10 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yennefer of Vengerberg die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? SELL No 17¢ $4 18h
Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? SELL No 11¢ $5 18h
Will Randy Zurcher be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? BUY Yes $1 46h
Will Tanvir Ahmad win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election BUY Yes $1 46h
Will David Ballantine win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? BUY Yes $1 46h
Will Mel Sullivan win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? BUY Yes $1 46h
Will Jorg Shelton-Eckstein win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? BUY Yes $1 46h
Will Nurul Hoque Ali win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? BUY Yes $1 46h
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include UDMR + AUR? BUY Yes $1 46h
Will Rabiu Kwankwaso win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? BUY Yes $1 46h
Will Rotimi Amaechi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? BUY Yes $1 46h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Antioquia in the second rou BUY No $1 46h
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 10m? BUY Yes $1 46h
Will anyone say "Planet" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY No $1 46h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 47h
FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr? SELL Yes 59¢ $5 47h
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? SELL No 86¢ $7 47h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 47h
Will Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conferenc SELL Yes 44¢ $4 2d
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' SELL Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will Love Island USA be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June SELL No 88¢ $6 2d
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 3d
FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 3d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? BUY No 57¢ $5 3d
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Will Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conferenc BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Will Love Island USA be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June BUY No 79¢ $5 3d
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY No 40¢ $5 3d
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3d
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? SELL No $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.13 · official $25.13 (match) · 1045 history records