Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:26:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
37 0x3710…358e crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 342d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$273 (-13%) realized −$273 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%22W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$323
other 30% −$194
crypto 26% +$129
sports 5% +$15
world 2% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.7% -6.2% 50% 33% -15.5%
≤30d 7 +24.5% +12.6% 57% 43% +0.2%
≤90d 11 +16.7% +5.6% 55% 45% +4.4%
all 49 +5.5% -4.5% 45% 41% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 41% -22.7%
10% -13.7% 33% -30.1%
15% -22.0% 27% -36.9%
20% -29.6% 24% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$25 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

342d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$273
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses22 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage342d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $36 −$7 -19%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $63 −$13 -20%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $41 +$32 +78%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $67 +$7 +11%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $162 −$46 -28%
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election Jun 14 $50 +$75 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 06 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 06 $20 +$22 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 23 $1 +$11 +1148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 23 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 23 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 23 $35 +$21 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 12 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 12 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 12 $11 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 12 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Marcos Rashford be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Mar 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 11 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 11 $15 +$16 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 11 $60 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 11 $55 +$33 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 11 $110 +$55 +50%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? Feb 04 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Bayern Munich finish first in UCL league phase? Oct 28 $20 −$8 -40%
Will Real Madrid finish first in UCL league phase? Oct 28 $2 $0 -24%
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%? Oct 28 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%? Oct 21 $26 $0 -1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 22 $581 −$180 -31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on September 20? Sep 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on September 19? Sep 19 $27 +$38 +142%
Will valid votes be between 6-6.2 million in Bolivia election? Aug 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will valid votes be more than 6.2 million in Bolivia election? Aug 18 $115 −$113 -99%
Will Quiroga win by 3-7%? Aug 16 $29 −$24 -82%
Boxing: TheGrefg vs Westcol Jul 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Boxing: Andoni vs. Carlos Belcast Jul 27 $77 +$26 +34%
Boxing: Abby vs. RoRo Jul 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Boxing: Perxitaa vs. Gaspi Jul 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Boxing: Alana vs Ari Geli Jul 26 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the most votes in the first round of the Jul 26 $5 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $29 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $31 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $73 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $74 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $116 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $101 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $63 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $67 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $36 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 10d
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election SELL Yes 45¢ $28 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down $1 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $20 80d
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election SELL Yes 52¢ $17 80d
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election SELL Yes 52¢ $10 80d
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election SELL Yes 53¢ $35 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up $1 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $9 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $15 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $56 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $35 94d
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election SELL Yes 54¢ $15 94d
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election SELL Yes 54¢ $20 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records