Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x370f…eaf5 weather 721 markets active 16h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$227 (-14%) realized −$224 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate34%246W / 473L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$22
14 days−$52
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 69% −$169
crypto 22% −$52
other 4% −$28
politics 3% −$23
sports 2% +$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -13.6% -21.8% 37% 35% -26.5%
≤30d 59 -20.9% -28.5% 34% 32% -41.6%
≤90d 719 -6.0% -15.0% 34% 28% -25.1%
all 719 -6.0% -15.0% 34% 28% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 28% -25.1%
10% -23.1% 22% -32.2%
15% -30.6% 18% -38.8%
20% -37.4% 14% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$224
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses246 / 473
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)719 / 721
History coverage84d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 719 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$7 +696%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$4 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +57%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -46%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? Jun 10 $4 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -28%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +151%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 15h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 11? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 11? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 11? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.02 · official $6.02 (match) · 1746 history records