Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:18:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x370d…b34b politics 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 38L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% $0
politics 27% $0
world 25% +$2
culture 7% $0
sports 4% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 12 +0.4% -9.1% 25% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 12 +0.4% -9.1% 25% 0% -9.1%
all 49 +0.3% -9.2% 22% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage270d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $52 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $22 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $73 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $40 +$2 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $27 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 10 $1 $0 +8%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 09 $4 $0 -0%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $20 $0 -0%
Will No Other Choice win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awar Oct 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 07 $2 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $24 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 04 $28 $0 -1%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $28 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Oct 02 $27 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 30 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $20 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 29 $8 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 29 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $9 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 28 $21 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 26 $27 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 26 $2 $0 -2%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3600 in September? Sep 24 $2 $0 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $44 38m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $44 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $45 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 76¢ $46 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $15 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $20 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $14 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $16 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $12 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $41 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 79¢ $41 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 79¢ $41 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $31 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $12 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 64¢ $40 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records