Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:54:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x370c…3eb1 sports 595 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d only
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,128 (-15%) realized −$1,094 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate55%300W / 250L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day84.2pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$574now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$41
14 days+$269
30 days+$457
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$57
world 40% +$462
other 11% −$44
economics 2% $0
finance 2% −$1
politics 1% −$22
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +11.5% +0.9% 53% 33% -4.2%
≤30d 539 +8.2% -2.1% 54% 41% -2.3%
≤90d 550 +10.1% -0.4% 55% 42% -2.0%
all 550 +10.1% -0.4% 55% 42% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.4% 42% -2.0%
10% ← realistic here -9.9% 33% -11.3%
15% -18.6% 25% -19.9%
20% -26.6% 20% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$574
Realized−$1,094
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses300 / 250
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions46
Markets (closed)550 / 595
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day84.2
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 550 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? OpenAI 33¢ 28¢ $144 $126 −$18 (-12%)
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $79 $72 −$7 (-9%)
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? No 78¢ 84¢ $46 $49 +$3 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 78¢ $36 $34 −$2 (-5%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 66¢ 66¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $28 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 5¢ 19¢ $6 $22 +$16 (+262%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 85¢ 91¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+7%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $16 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 44¢ 36¢ $16 $14 −$3 (-17%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? No 82¢ 86¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 64¢ 86¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+33%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+30%)
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? No 83¢ 84¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 66¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? No 22¢ 19¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 36¢ 37¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 25¢ 16¢ $10 $7 −$4 (-36%)
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? No 89¢ 90¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? No 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 17 $71 −$9 -13%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 −$1 -32%
ITF Taipei: Eri Shimizu vs Nagi Hanatani Jun 17 $4 $0 +8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 16 $20 $0 -2%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $3 +$3 +101%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin Jun 16 $9 +$5 +51%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace Jun 16 $6 +$1 +8%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -24%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez Jun 16 $7 $0 +4%
ITF Tauste: Yushan Shao vs Marine Szostak Jun 16 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $11 −$4 -40%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 16 $57 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $6 +$2 +32%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $1 +$4 +388%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $7 +$5 +74%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $27 +$14 +53%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +67%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$9 +929%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $144 +$53 +36%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $11 +$3 +29%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $234 −$41 -17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $33 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $25 +$32 +129%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -30%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +100%
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? Jun 13 $7 $0 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 12 $4 +$5 +117%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $119 −$1 -1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 12¢ $1 17m
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 29m
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 31m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL Yes 17¢ $21 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL Yes 16¢ $10 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 12¢ $0 3h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? SELL No 36¢ $1 4h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? SELL No 36¢ $2 4h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 5h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL Yes 15¢ $9 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $35 6h
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 7h
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 19¢ $1 7h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 10h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? BUY No 89¢ $7 10h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $4 19h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 23h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 23h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 17¢ $3 24h
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? BUY No 89¢ $4 25h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 17¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $573.89 · official $573.94 (match) · 3500 history records