Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:15:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x370a…c6e1 crypto 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$108 (-6%) realized −$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate69%27W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day55.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$157
other 34% −$291
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +3.3% -6.5% 69% 59% -15.9%
≤30d 39 +3.3% -6.5% 69% 59% -15.9%
≤90d 39 +3.3% -6.5% 69% 59% -15.9%
all 39 +3.3% -6.5% 69% 59% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 59% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 46% -24.0%
15% -23.6% 33% -31.3%
20% -31.1% 13% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$47 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses27 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage2d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day55.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$9 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $57 +$24 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $22 −$15 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $73 +$34 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 27 $103 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$26 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $63 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$53 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $63 +$34 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$12 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$17 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $42 +$17 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 26 $32 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $62 +$14 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 26 $61 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$32 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $13 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $4 −$3 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $365 −$362 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $294 +$71 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $14 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $12 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $22 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $22 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $24 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $6 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $37 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $38 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $7 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $17 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $32 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records