Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:53:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x3709…3d7e
crypto · 551 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$51,135 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$51,278 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$51,278
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses150 / 410
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)560 / 551
History coverage540d
Avg bet$367
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 2 History 560 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,343
7 days−$4,872
14 days−$4,872
30 days−$4,873
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-77%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $153 $0 −$153 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $195 $0 −$195 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $197 $0 −$197 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $394 $0 −$394 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $7m? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $900 $0 −$900 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $464 $0 −$464 (-100%)
TikTok banned in 2025? No 15¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $149 $0 −$149 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $592 $0 −$592 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $103 $0 −$103 (-100%)
Will Karoline Leavitt say President 50+ times in her next press briefing? No 8¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $236 $0 −$236 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 10PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $261 $0 −$261 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $126,000 on October 9? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $215 $0 −$215 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Macron out as president of France in 2024? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross less than $16m on 3-day opening weekend Jun 13 $270 −$270 -100%
Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross less than $52m on 3-day opening wee Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $16-19m on 3-day opening weeken Jun 13 $258 −$251 -98%
Everton wins the Premier League? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross more than $25m on 3-day opening weekend Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $52-58m on 3-day opening we Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $19-22m on 3-day opening weeken Jun 13 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 20? Jun 13 $3,760 −$3,701 -98%
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $22-25m on 3-day opening weeken Jun 13 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$6 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $63 +$15 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $44 +$25 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $58 −$55 -95%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 13 $2,500 +$860 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $40 −$38 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $227 −$215 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $116 −$110 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $116 −$110 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $106 −$50 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $116 +$43 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $57 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $63 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $120 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$15 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $58 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$7 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $61 +$29 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 87% −$38,252
culture 7% −$2,895
politics 3% −$2,335
other 3% −$2,740
world 0% −$511
tech 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $17 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $14 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 SELL Yes 84¢ $579 2h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 SELL Yes 84¢ $200 2h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 SELL Yes 84¢ $255 2h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 SELL Yes 84¢ $30 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-44.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -32.6% -39.0% 29% 26% -42.2%
≤30d 137 -33.1% -39.4% 28% 26% -42.2%
≤90d 187 -34.3% -40.5% 33% 26% -31.6%
all 560 -39.0% -44.8% 27% 21% -38.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.8% 21% -38.9%
10% -50.1% 18% -44.7%
15% -54.9% 14% -50.1%
20% -59.4% 10% -55.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.59 · official $7.59 (match) · 3500 history records