Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:14:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
37 0x3708…2460 other 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 599d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$18 (+3%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%34W / 29L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$196
7 days+$219
14 days+$220
30 days+$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$211
sports 20% +$15
crypto 3% −$1
world 2% −$15
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +87.8% +69.9% 53% 53% +15.5%
≤30d 60 +43.9% +30.2% 52% 52% +0.1%
≤90d 60 +43.9% +30.2% 52% 52% +0.1%
all 63 +42.2% +28.7% 54% 51% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.7% 51% +0.1%
10% +16.4% 48% -9.5%
15% +5.1% 43% -18.3%
20% -5.2% 33% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +95% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses34 / 29
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 72
History coverage599d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $1 +$178 +12026%
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $3 +$30 +999%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$9 +90%
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 2 Austria? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$7 +70%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$6 +57%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? Jun 26 $3 −$2 -55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $7 +$12 +163%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $7 +$2 +32%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $7 +$9 +122%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$5 +46%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $7 +$7 +97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7 +$10 +134%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $7 +$12 +172%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 +$4 +52%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7 −$5 -66%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $6 −$6 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 +$12 +118%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 −$10 -68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $5 +$8 +152%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $14 +$3 +22%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7 +$4 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 +$23 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $22 −$9 -40%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$7 -69%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$8 -45%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 +$16 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $29 +$14 +47%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 +$2 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 +$6 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $180 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? SELL Yes 55¢ $33 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 12h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 14¢ $5 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AN BUY 6¢ $5 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $16 33h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 36h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 36h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY 16¢ $5 37h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 39h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026- BUY 44¢ $7 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AN BUY 17¢ $7 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $11 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 37¢ $7 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 26¢ $10 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U BUY 30¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 48¢ $2 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U BUY 22¢ $6 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 47¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records