Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
37 0x3705…9677 sports 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,847 (+20%) realized +$9,800 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%27W / 36L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$742per market
Trades / day41.5pace
Fees−$964est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,574now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$13,245
other 18% −$4,429
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +18.7% +7.4% 43% 41% +7.0%
≤30d 63 +18.7% +7.4% 43% 41% +7.0%
≤90d 63 +18.7% +7.4% 43% 41% +7.0%
all 63 +18.7% +7.4% 43% 41% +7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.4% 41% +7.0%
10% -2.9% 41% -3.3%
15% ← realistic here -12.2% 37% -12.6%
20% -20.8% 37% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$1,076) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,175 vs −$638 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,574
Realized+$9,800
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses27 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$964
Open positions4
Markets (closed)63 / 67
History coverage5d
Avg bet$742
Trades / day41.5
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 40¢ 42¢ $1,000 $1,046 +$46 (+5%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $350 $350 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 21¢ 22¢ $107 $110 +$3 (+2%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Over 10¢ 10¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,018 −$1,018 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $803 −$803 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $3,038 −$1,415 -47%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $865 +$1,705 +197%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Luca Van Assche Jun 19 $1,105 −$1,105 -100%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $1,119 +$1,437 +128%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $307 −$307 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $550 −$550 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $803 −$803 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $1,363 +$1,181 +87%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $81 +$18 +22%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $717 +$766 +107%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $495 −$495 -100%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $198 −$198 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $251 −$251 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $761 +$759 +100%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $465 +$27 +6%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $337 +$227 +67%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $332 −$332 -100%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 19 $380 −$380 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $317 +$307 +97%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $197 +$482 +244%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $410 −$410 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,114 −$1,114 -100%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $3 +$8 +238%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,018 +$912 +90%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,287 +$2,127 +165%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $5 +$22 +442%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 18 $526 +$1,532 +291%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche Jun 18 $1,022 −$1,022 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto Jun 18 $1,528 +$504 +33%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $716 +$184 +26%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $313 −$313 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $1,097 −$69 -6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1,076 −$1,076 -100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $723 −$723 -100%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $1,260 −$1,260 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $825 −$825 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $1,084 +$4,790 +442%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $786 +$1,378 +175%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $580 −$580 -100%
Linda Noskova vs. Diane Parry: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $745 −$745 -100%
Noskova vs. Parry: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 18 $362 +$424 +117%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $388 −$388 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,550 −$1,134 -73%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 18 $614 −$614 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $71 21m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $51 21m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $306 21m
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 21¢ $110 12h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 40¢ $1,018 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $1,018 12h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $409 12h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $2,555 12h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 14h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $799 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $4 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $861 14h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $856 14h
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 9¢ $6 15h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Luca Van Assche BUY Daniel Rincon 24¢ $1,105 15h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) SELL Türkiye 23¢ $1,110 15h
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 9¢ $6 15h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $1,213 15h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 43¢ $1,119 15h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $2,338 15h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 51¢ $206 17h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala SELL Elina Svitolina 51¢ $206 17h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 50¢ $1 17h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 51¢ $512 17h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) SELL Türkiye 23¢ $513 17h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 51¢ $99 17h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 51¢ $3 17h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic SELL Viktorija Golubic 65¢ $99 17h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 25¢ $550 17h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Laslo Djere 27¢ $307 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,573.63 · official $1,565.10 (match) · 240 history records