Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3704…4e2f other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$292 (-34%) realized −$293 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%9W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$479
7 days−$279
14 days−$303
30 days−$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$263
sports 27% −$29
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -28.3% -35.1% 30% 30% -45.4%
≤30d 27 +42.8% +29.2% 33% 33% -46.0%
≤90d 27 +42.8% +29.2% 33% 33% -46.0%
all 27 +42.8% +29.2% 33% 33% -46.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.2% 33% -46.0%
10% +16.8% 30% -51.2%
15% +5.5% 26% -55.9%
20% -4.8% 26% -60.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +186% → late -91% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$30 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$293
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses9 / 18
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage10d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $101 +$31 +31%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$28 +140%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? Jun 20 $10 +$22 +216%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $51 +$49 +97%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 20 $20 +$20 +101%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $25 +$5 +20%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 25h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 76¢ $101 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 6d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 6d
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 6d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 58¢ $30 7d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 7d
United States leading at halftime? SELL Yes 92¢ $40 7d
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 7d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 7d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $40 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $30 8d
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 8d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 8d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 9d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 9d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 9d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.97 · official $40.97 (match) · 49 history records