Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:09:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36ff…f2a6 weather 365 markets active 5h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$200 (-3%) realized −$187 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%124W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$67
14 days+$60
30 days+$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$369
sports 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -7.7% -16.5% 33% 33% -17.4%
≤30d 147 +7.9% -2.4% 39% 39% -3.9%
≤90d 352 -5.9% -14.9% 35% 34% -14.1%
all 353 -6.0% -14.9% 35% 34% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 34% -14.1%
10% -23.1% 34% -22.3%
15% -30.5% 33% -29.8%
20% -37.3% 32% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$17 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized−$187
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses124 / 229
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)353 / 365
History coverage99d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? Yes 45¢ 56¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 19? Yes 45¢ 47¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Yes 36¢ 37¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 19? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 19? Yes 28¢ 40¢ $13 $18 +$6 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 19? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $16 $16 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 19? Yes 38¢ 32¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Yes 35¢ 20¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-44%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 +$32 +182%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $21 +$33 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $21 +$37 +181%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 +$27 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $18 +$39 +213%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 +$32 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 +$31 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$38 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $14 +$25 +183%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 +$31 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 +$32 +207%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 +$35 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$37 +196%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$17 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 +$32 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$27 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$24 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 +$38 +206%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 43¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 43¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 43¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 43¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 28¢ $13 15h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 43¢ $11 15h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 19h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 19h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 19h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $17 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 36¢ $21 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $13 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 45¢ $21 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 43h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.23 · official $200.10 · 1938 history records