Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:08:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36fe…6081 crypto 130 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3370 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$519 (+2%) realized +$535 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -79% what you keep after slip
Net edge-79%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate13%59W / 411L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day3370.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3370 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-74.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 470 -72.3% -74.9% 13% 3% -17.4%
≤30d 470 -72.3% -74.9% 13% 3% -17.4%
≤90d 470 -72.3% -74.9% 13% 3% -17.4%
all 470 -72.3% -74.9% 13% 3% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3370.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -74.9% 3% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -77.3% 1% -25.3%
15% -79.5% 1% -32.5%
20% -81.5% 0% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
25.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$535
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses59 / 411
Open positions1
Markets (closed)470 / 130
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$193
Trades / day3370.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 470 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 44¢ 69¢ $41 $65 +$24 (+58%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 44¢ 30¢ $50 $35 −$16 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 341 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $17 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $7 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $7 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $34 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $27 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $18 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.60 · official $102.81 · 3500 history records