Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:03:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36fc…64e9 other 85 markets active 3h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate41%34W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$11
other 32% +$1
politics 18% +$1
sports 9% −$3
economics 5% $0
crypto 2% −$2
weather 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -9.9% -18.5% 12% 0% -13.6%
≤30d 17 -5.6% -14.6% 24% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 59 -3.1% -12.4% 36% 3% -9.8%
all 83 -5.4% -14.4% 41% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 5% -10.0%
10% -22.6% 2% -18.6%
15% -30.1% 2% -26.5%
20% -37.0% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses34 / 49
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 85
History coverage525d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 32¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $67 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $11 −$4 -32%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $11 −$3 -27%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $16 −$3 -20%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $65 $0 -1%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 -15%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $99 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $54 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $80 +$5 +6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $7 $0 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $2 $0 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $97 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $38 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $159 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $31 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $81 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $38 $0 +1%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 2? Apr 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $122 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 11 $77 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $38 $0 +1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 10 $84 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 08 $81 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $39 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 05 $1 $0 -16%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $44 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $2 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 2h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 26h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $15 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $15 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $26 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $26 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $11 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $36 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 19¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $11 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $1 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $4 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $2 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $3 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $4 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 10¢ $16 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $45 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $19 8d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.30 · official $34.89 (match) · 308 history records