Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:14:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36fb…12ce crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$178 (-29%) realized −$146 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day41.0pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$208
other 23% −$15
world 3% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -1.7% -11.0% 38% 38% -53.2%
≤30d 16 -1.7% -11.0% 38% 38% -53.2%
≤90d 16 -1.7% -11.0% 38% 38% -53.2%
all 16 -1.7% -11.0% 38% 38% -53.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 38% -53.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 38% -57.7%
15% -27.3% 31% -61.8%
20% -34.4% 25% -65.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$33 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$146
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $65 $52 −$13 (-21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-21%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 4¢ 0¢ $19 $1 −$18 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$70 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$19 +368%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $131 −$125 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.64 · official $124.64 (match) · 53 history records