Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:37:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
36 0x36f7…5f09 world 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$40 (+1%) realized +$38 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%22W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$8
14 days+$127
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$22
other 33% +$21
politics 6% −$11
sports 4% +$50
crypto 4% $0
finance 1% +$13
tech 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -63.2% -66.7% 17% 17% -14.4%
≤30d 45 -9.0% -17.7% 40% 29% -9.6%
≤90d 53 +20.0% +8.6% 42% 32% -7.6%
all 53 +20.0% +8.6% 42% 32% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 32% -7.6%
10% -1.8% 26% -16.5%
15% -11.3% 19% -24.5%
20% -20.0% 15% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$307
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses22 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)53 / 61
History coverage60d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $40 $67 +$27 (+69%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+30%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-27%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $35 $22 −$13 (-38%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes $15 $8 −$7 (-45%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $100 +$22 +22%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $26 −$5 -19%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $15 −$12 -82%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$18 +172%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $100 +$44 +44%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $16 +$1 +9%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$11 +74%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $20 −$3 -14%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$5 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $391 +$47 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $12 +$10 +80%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +371%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $101 +$25 +25%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 14 $16 +$8 +51%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $101 +$23 +22%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 12 $15 −$5 -31%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Jun 11 $21 −$10 -48%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $106 −$82 -78%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $15 −$9 -61%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $20 −$5 -25%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $41 −$2 -6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $21 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $50 −$22 -44%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $50 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $152 +$15 +10%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 05 $51 −$16 -31%
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026? Jun 04 $16 −$1 -8%
Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026? Jun 04 $4 −$3 -74%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -86%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $10 −$2 -17%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $30 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $50 −$29 -58%
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? Jun 02 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Jun 01 $40 −$3 -7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 31 $20 +$13 +67%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $2 +$30 +1461%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 28 $30 −$12 -39%
Will Jacob deGrom win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? May 26 $21 +$6 +29%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b May 25 $41 +$10 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $122 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $16 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $100 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $144 7d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $12 8d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $6 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 10d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $3 10d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $16 10d
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes $16 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $19 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $27 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $100 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $48 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 12d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 12d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $45 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $306.98 · official $306.98 (match) · 234 history records