Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:40:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36f6…ae14 weather 797 markets active 5d ago coverage 59d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,665 (+2%) realized +$3,665 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate58%548W / 401L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day37.6pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$17,650
sports 0% +$434
other 0% −$57
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 -77.0% -79.2% 14% 6% -31.6%
≤30d 564 -31.6% -38.1% 49% 23% -22.3%
≤90d 949 -16.0% -24.0% 58% 24% -18.6%
all 949 -16.0% -24.0% 58% 24% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.0% 24% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -31.3% 12% -26.4%
15% -37.9% 7% -33.5%
20% -44.0% 6% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$91 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,665
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses548 / 401
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)949 / 797
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$265
Trades / day37.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 949 Trades
no open positions (183 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 10? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on June 10? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 7? Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 10? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 9? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 10? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 9? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 10? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 2? Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 7? Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 9? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 10? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 9? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or below on June 12? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 7? Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 9? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 2? Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 9? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 10? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 7? Jun 18 $41 −$45 -111%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 10? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on June 10? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 12? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 10? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or below on June 9? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 10? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C or below on June 9? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C or below on June 10? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 9? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 10? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 9? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on June 9? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 10? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 10? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $30 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 13? SELL Yes 98¢ $57 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $999 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL No 12¢ $18 5d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $30 5d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 13? SELL No 72¢ $4 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $59 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL No 6¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $157 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $84 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $339 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $27 5d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $115 5d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 32¢ $76 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $20 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $155 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $146 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 85¢ $87 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 85¢ $171 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $16 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 85¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 85¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $8 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 8¢ $5 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 80¢ $4 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $8 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $8 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 80¢ $32 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records