Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:35:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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36 0x36f4…0eb2 sports 564 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$442 (-5%) realized −$433 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%204W / 325L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day61.9pace
Fees−$150est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$931now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$537
7 days−$229
14 days+$201
30 days−$547
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$536
other 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -6.2% -15.2% 49% 49% -15.7%
≤30d 529 -4.0% -13.1% 39% 37% -15.2%
≤90d 529 -4.0% -13.1% 39% 37% -15.2%
all 529 -4.0% -13.1% 39% 37% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 37% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 35% -23.3%
15% -29.0% 32% -30.7%
20% -36.0% 29% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$931
Realized−$433
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses204 / 325
Est. fees paid−$150
Open positions35
Markets (closed)529 / 564
History coverage27d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day61.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 529 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 56¢ 56¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 58¢ 58¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds New York Mets 53¢ 52¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-2%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ 52¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ 42¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 41¢ 38¢ $42 $40 −$2 (-5%)
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 64¢ 64¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ 60¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 62¢ 62¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 64¢ 62¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 63¢ 60¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-5%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ 58¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Miami Marlins 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ 50¢ $31 $30 −$2 (-5%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds New York Mets 54¢ 54¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Chicago Cubs 45¢ 46¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Kansas City Royals 47¢ 46¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Detroit Tigers 50¢ 50¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 50¢ 48¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Chicago White Sox 43¢ 42¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) New York Mets 43¢ 42¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 55¢ 56¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Athletics 39¢ 40¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Seattle Mariners 40¢ 40¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Kansas City Royals 47¢ 44¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 210 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $30 +$20 +69%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $26 +$22 +86%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 16 $38 +$22 +57%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $27 +$23 +83%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $28 +$22 +79%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $28 +$22 +76%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 16 $29 +$46 +156%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $31 +$24 +76%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 15 $22 −$22 -99%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 14 $16 +$24 +152%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $57 +$43 +76%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $26 +$24 +90%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 14 $32 +$18 +55%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 14 $24 +$26 +105%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $38 +$62 +162%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $24 +$26 +105%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 +$19 +60%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 14 $33 +$17 +52%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $49 +$41 +85%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $51 +$49 +95%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 14 $35 +$20 +57%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 14 $59 −$27 -46%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $66 −$35 -54%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $24 −$24 -99%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 14 $35 −$35 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $55 −$55 -99%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 14 $27 −$27 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $24 +$26 +105%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 47¢ $1 15m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $6 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $32 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 37¢ $8 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 44¢ $7 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 40¢ $12 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $22 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ $33 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 40¢ $8 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 47¢ $5 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 50¢ $25 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 47¢ $26 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 47¢ $4 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 54¢ $30 1h
Montreal Alouettes vs. Edmonton Elks BUY Edmonton Elks 39¢ $20 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ $36 12h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $20 12h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 40¢ $21 12h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 59¢ $25 12h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 39¢ $22 12h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $30 12h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 64¢ $35 12h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 45¢ $25 12h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 64¢ $37 12h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 51¢ $28 12h
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 43¢ $23 12h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 53¢ $30 12h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 62¢ $35 12h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 63¢ $35 12h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 58¢ $30 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $930.74 · official $930.74 (match) · 2016 history records