Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36f4…7518 weather 306 markets active 8h ago coverage 228d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$33 (+0%) realized −$98 · open +$131
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate15%90W / 528L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,701now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 228d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$3,943
weather 13% −$1,900
world 5% +$189
sports 2% −$70
politics 2% −$25
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% +$87
tech 1% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-60.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 302 -98.5% -98.6% 1% 1% -93.2%
≤30d 321 -92.6% -93.3% 5% 4% -67.3%
≤90d 421 -82.8% -84.5% 6% 5% -61.3%
all 618 -56.1% -60.3% 15% 11% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.3% 11% -33.4%
10% -64.1% 9% -39.7%
15% -67.6% 8% -45.6%
20% -70.7% 7% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -97% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$31 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$1,701
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$131
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses90 / 528
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)618 / 306
History coverage228d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 618 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No 60¢ 88¢ $150 $219 +$69 (+46%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 76¢ 80¢ $200 $212 +$12 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 72¢ 99¢ $150 $206 +$56 (+38%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 82¢ 99¢ $150 $181 +$31 (+20%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 93¢ $150 $177 +$27 (+18%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 81¢ 95¢ $150 $176 +$26 (+17%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 84¢ 94¢ $150 $168 +$18 (+12%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 81¢ 88¢ $150 $164 +$14 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 86¢ 90¢ $150 $158 +$8 (+5%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 56¢ 14¢ $170 $41 −$129 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 439 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 6? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on Apri Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ap Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 54-55°F on Apri Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on Apri Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 79°F or below on May 7? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 28 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on May 1? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on Apri Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 58-59°F on May Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 3? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 3? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025? Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on May 2? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Jun 20 $19 −$19 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on May 2? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Jun 20 $20 −$38 -191%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026 Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $10 8h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $150 23h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $10 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $150 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 79¢ $150 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 5¢ $3 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 21¢ $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $150 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 65¢ $22 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 29¢ $10 6d
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? SELL No 98¢ $184 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $173 6d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $50 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 86¢ $150 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 70¢ $128 11d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 81¢ $151 12d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $152 15d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $0 15d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $153 15d
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? BUY No 80¢ $152 17d
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang SELL No 81¢ $191 18d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 81¢ $151 19d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $151 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $152 20d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $151 20d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $150 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $151 20d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $176 20d
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang BUY No 84¢ $201 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,701.41 · official $1,701.41 (match) · 1334 history records