Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36f0…232e world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$11
world 38% −$5
sports 10% −$4
finance 7% −$2
economics 0% $0
politics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.5% -12.7% 0% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 28 -1.5% -10.8% 36% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 35 -1.4% -10.8% 31% 3% -9.6%
all 40 -0.8% -10.3% 32% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 5% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 27
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage97d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $57 −$6 -10%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $195 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $13 −$3 -22%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $110 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $102 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $14 +$2 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $103 −$2 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $103 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $195 +$7 +4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $108 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -10%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $249 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $207 +$10 +5%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $81 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $245 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $220 −$1 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $283 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $112 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $94 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $225 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $106 −$4 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $107 −$4 -4%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $3 $0 -9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $99 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $47 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 19 $58 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $94 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $44 −$4 -8%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $116 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $149 −$1 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $624 −$2 -0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 18 $1,520 −$14 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 17 $410 +$1 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $1,317 −$4 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 13 $23 +$4 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $52 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $4 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $46 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 84¢ $52 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $111 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $111 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $65 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $61 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $83 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.27 · official $52.49 (match) · 232 history records