Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:14:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

36
0x36ef…3c3a
weather · 943 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$462 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$448 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$628
Realized−$448
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses624 / 164
Open positions155
Markets (closed)788 / 943
History coverage8d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day422.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 155 History 788 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$489
14 days−$448
30 days−$448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Yes 27¢ 56¢ $13 $28 +$14 (+104%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Yes 25¢ 31¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Yes 52¢ 44¢ $13 $12 −$2 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Yes 39¢ 33¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Yes 43¢ 48¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? No 81¢ 86¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 92¢ 96¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? No 81¢ 83¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 13? No 96¢ 98¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? No 95¢ 96¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? No 92¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? No 93¢ 92¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? No 92¢ 90¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? No 96¢ 92¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? No 90¢ 94¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? No 91¢ 92¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 88¢ 74¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? No 96¢ 95¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? No 94¢ 92¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Yes 35¢ 42¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? No 89¢ 81¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? No 87¢ 77¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +142%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$3 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$7 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 75% −$406
weather 24% −$40
world 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $2 41m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $2 42m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $3 42m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June SELL No 100¢ $2 42m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $2 43m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $2 43m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $2 43m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $2 43m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 43m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $3 44m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $2 44m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $2 44m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $2 44m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $2 50m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $2 50m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $2 50m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $2 50m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $2 50m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $2 50m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 50m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 50m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $2 58m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 89¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 662 +0.2% -9.4% 79% 37% -15.6%
≤30d 788 +2.0% -7.7% 79% 38% -13.5%
≤90d 788 +2.0% -7.7% 79% 38% -13.5%
all 788 +2.0% -7.7% 79% 38% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover422.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 38% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 14% -21.8%
15% -24.6% 8% -29.3%
20% -32.0% 5% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $627.77 · official $615.65 · 3500 history records