Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36ee…69e6 sports 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$89 (-3%) realized −$122 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%80W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$35
14 days−$57
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$62
sports 23% +$41
other 19% −$63
crypto 7% −$98
politics 5% +$14
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +18.1% +6.8% 54% 43% -11.1%
≤30d 133 +10.5% -0.1% 53% 43% -15.4%
≤90d 165 +18.3% +7.0% 48% 41% -17.3%
all 165 +18.3% +7.0% 48% 41% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.0% 41% -17.3%
10% -3.2% 30% -25.2%
15% -12.6% 24% -32.4%
20% -21.1% 19% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses80 / 85
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions24
Markets (closed)165 / 189
History coverage45d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 39¢ 85¢ $15 $33 +$18 (+119%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 82¢ 92¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 38¢ 44¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 55¢ 62¢ $19 $21 +$3 (+14%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 76¢ 80¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-4%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 70¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? No 74¢ 87¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 89¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? No 63¢ 81¢ $7 $10 +$2 (+29%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 17¢ $7 $9 +$3 (+42%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 91¢ 98¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+8%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 73¢ 88¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? No 89¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Yes 74¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 84¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner LGD Gaming 83¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 12¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-80%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 44¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 +$3 +50%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 +$9 +114%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -13%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 +$4 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $31 −$6 -18%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $12 +$2 +13%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $38 −$11 -28%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$10 -50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $31 $0 -1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$20 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 −$11 -43%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $86 +$8 +9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$21 +206%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $74 −$10 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $22 −$11 -48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $263 −$27 -10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $37 −$7 -20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$15 +144%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $11 $0 +3%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 14 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 83¢ $5 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 13¢ $5 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 5h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $6 6h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 90¢ $5 6h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 88¢ $5 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 8h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 66¢ $5 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 85¢ $12 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 8h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 9h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 9h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $8 9h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 60¢ $5 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $19 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 63¢ $4 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $5 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.23 · official $276.12 (match) · 610 history records