Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36ec…094d crypto 166 markets active 2h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$178 (+0%) realized +$178 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate94%155W / 10L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$359now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$9
14 days+$13
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$15
sports 3% +$191
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 13 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 29 -3.1% -12.3% 97% 0% -9.2%
all 165 -0.0% -9.6% 94% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 1% -9.2%
10% -18.2% 1% -17.9%
15% -26.1% 1% -25.8%
20% -33.4% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$31 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$359
Realized+$178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses155 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)165 / 166
History coverage280d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $359 $359 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? Jun 29 $357 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $354 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $352 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? Jun 25 $351 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 24 $350 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $348 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $346 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? Jun 15 $344 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 10 $344 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $343 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $342 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $341 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $340 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 28 $337 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? May 18 $337 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $335 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 9? May 10 $335 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 7? May 08 $335 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 04 $332 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 01 $332 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $331 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19? Apr 21 $330 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $330 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1AM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $331 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $329 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5? Apr 05 $327 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $326 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 01 $325 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $324 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $323 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $323 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $322 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $322 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $321 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $320 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 18? Mar 18 $326 −$7 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 9-15? Mar 16 $326 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $325 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $325 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $325 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $324 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8? Mar 09 $323 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $323 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $322 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $321 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $318 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 01 $318 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $317 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 22? Feb 23 $317 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $359 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $357 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $358 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $354 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $354 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $352 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $351 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $351 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $350 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $348 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $347 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $346 11d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $344 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $344 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $343 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $343 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $342 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $341 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $340 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $339 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $337 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $337 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $335 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $335 52d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $335 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? BUY Yes 99¢ $332 58d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $332 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $331 69d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $330 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $330 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.82 · official $358.82 (match) · 371 history records