Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
36 0x36eb…628d other 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%7W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$14
politics 38% −$11
sports 6% +$29
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 97 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 4% -9.6%
all 106 +0.9% -8.7% 7% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 5% -9.5%
10% -17.5% 4% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 4% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×14.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses7 / 99
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage115d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $392 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $214 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $38 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $477 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 30 $230 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $195 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $205 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $184 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $173 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $412 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $237 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $209 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $196 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $250 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $227 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $601 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $237 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $233 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $182 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $396 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $194 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $252 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $183 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $258 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $218 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $384 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $224 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $195 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $216 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $196 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $476 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $261 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $219 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $256 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $258 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $260 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $215 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $219 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $460 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $252 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $43 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $43 8h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 13h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 17h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 26h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 38h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $41 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $41 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 6d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $29 9d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $29 9d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 10d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 11d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $38 11d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $38 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 13d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $35 14d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $35 15d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 20d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 21d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $230 21d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $230 25d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $213 25d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $213 25d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $175 25d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $175 27d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $195 27d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $195 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 326 history records