Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:35:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
36 0x36e9…db7a other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate29%21W / 51L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$9
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$29
politics 14% −$7
other 11% +$28
sports 2% −$18
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
world 0% +$42
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -6.0% -15.0% 6% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 54 -6.7% -15.6% 22% 15% -10.6%
all 72 -0.5% -10.0% 29% 17% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 17% -9.5%
10% -18.6% 17% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 11% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses21 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage592d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $17 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $21 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $19 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $124 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $9 +$4 +50%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $128 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $120 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $119 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $240 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 25 $125 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $259 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $253 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 23 $125 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $127 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $125 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 22 $132 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $134 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $127 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $121 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 14 $123 $0 -0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 13 $11 −$1 -7%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $118 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $6 +$10 +165%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $11 +$6 +50%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $12 +$3 +29%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 06 $21 +$6 +31%
Blackhawks vs. Islanders Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Ducks vs. Canadiens Apr 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Canucks vs. Flames Apr 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 02 $24 $0 +0%
Canucks vs. Golden Knights Apr 02 $24 +$8 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $26 59m
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $79 2d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 4d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 5d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $24 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 8d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 8d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 9d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 47¢ $9 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 11d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 12d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 12d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $26 14d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $26 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 15d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 15d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 17d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 17d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 17d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 17d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 24d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 24d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.85 · official $104.85 (match) · 288 history records