Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
36 0x36e9…d246 sports 425 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$45 (+0%) realized +$60 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate65%274W / 150L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$348est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$907
14 days−$209
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$169
crypto 1% −$86
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -6.5% -15.4% 65% 37% -17.4%
≤30d 161 -8.3% -17.0% 63% 42% -9.5%
≤90d 374 -6.0% -14.9% 64% 47% -9.7%
all 424 -5.4% -14.4% 65% 46% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 46% -9.8%
10% -22.6% 28% -18.4%
15% -30.1% 14% -26.3%
20% -37.0% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$55 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$60
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses274 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$348
Open positions1
Markets (closed)424 / 425
History coverage106d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 424 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 65¢ 32¢ $31 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $21 +$10 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $40 −$19 -48%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $65 +$5 +8%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $62 +$4 +7%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$2 +43%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $52 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $36 −$9 -25%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $24 +$3 +13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $23 +$2 +7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $19 +$4 +20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$6 -24%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $23 −$10 -44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $15 +$3 +22%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $95 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $260 −$101 -39%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $98 −$17 -18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $55 +$5 +8%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $71 +$21 +30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $22 +$12 +54%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 −$8 -27%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $62 −$8 -13%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $63 −$26 -40%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $44 +$19 +44%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $36 +$8 +22%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $35 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $805 −$772 -96%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $60 +$18 +30%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $616 −$616 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $702 +$87 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,200 +$60 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $36 +$7 +18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $491 +$144 +29%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $54 −$11 -21%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $419 +$84 +20%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $380 +$39 +10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $344 +$35 +10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $363 −$19 -5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $299 +$64 +21%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $279 +$20 +7%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $48 +$17 +36%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $82 −$82 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $308 −$227 -73%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $294 +$15 +5%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $644 +$116 +18%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,027 +$36 +4%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $376 +$123 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 84¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 37¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $40 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $40 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 77¢ $31 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 58¢ $31 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 64¢ $35 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $35 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 91¢ $32 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 78¢ $32 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 3¢ $0 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 60¢ $25 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 69¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $7 5h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 69¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 69¢ $4 5h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 99¢ $28 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 88¢ $25 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 61¢ $25 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 65¢ $27 7h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 85¢ $9 29h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $17 30h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 42¢ $17 30h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $27 34h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 88¢ $24 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $24 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 93¢ $23 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $23 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.31 · official $15.31 (match) · 1094 history records