Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
36 0x36e7…0b6b other 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$46,296 (+34%) realized +$46,927 · open −$631
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate87%126W / 19L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$879per market
Trades / day39.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit4%portable
Net worth$13,928now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 82d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$3,596
politics 0% −$142
sports 0% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +15.0% +4.1% 76% 52% -5.7%
≤30d 62 +5.7% -4.4% 84% 35% -5.7%
≤90d 145 +9.7% -0.7% 87% 37% -6.4%
all 145 +9.7% -0.7% 87% 37% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.7% 37% -6.4%
10% -10.2% 10% -15.4%
15% ← realistic here -18.9% 6% -23.5%
20% -26.8% 6% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$1,038) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$528 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$13,928
Realized+$46,927
Unrealized−$631
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses126 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)145 / 154
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$879
Trades / day39.6
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit4%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No 87¢ 89¢ $9,370 $9,578 +$208 (+2%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 91¢ $1,860 $1,812 −$48 (-3%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 60¢ 64¢ $991 $1,046 +$55 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 59¢ 57¢ $800 $783 −$17 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 65¢ 64¢ $275 $270 −$5 (-2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 89¢ 88¢ $89 $87 −$1 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $81 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 77¢ 76¢ $77 $76 −$0 (-1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 26¢ 7¢ $235 $62 −$174 (-74%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 80¢ 78¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Macron out by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $658 $11 −$647 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 17 $5,028 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $63 +$7 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $448 +$64 +14%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19 +$3 +13%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $85 +$15 +17%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $407 +$93 +23%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $442 +$58 +13%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $67 −$66 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $162 +$13 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $651 +$184 +28%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $69 +$31 +46%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 +$71 +250%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $762 +$66 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $292 +$28 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $83 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $943 −$248 -26%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $39 +$61 +158%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $253 +$21 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $80 +$5 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,108 +$197 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $125 +$12 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $312 +$35 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $83 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,146 −$976 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $83 +$4 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $892 +$270 +30%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $238 −$142 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $81 +$9 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,610 +$178 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $59 −$27 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $470 +$47 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $154 +$8 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $168 +$12 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 29 $85 +$5 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1,378 +$281 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $255 +$21 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $749 +$72 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 27 $430 +$31 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $246 +$14 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $1,401 +$485 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 26 $87 +$6 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $601 +$34 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $171 +$6 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,359 +$111 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 25 $268 +$14 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $172 +$11 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $56 57m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $59 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $59 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $59 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $146 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $62 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $19 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $1,864 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $7 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $73 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 97¢ $371 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $43 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $20 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $14 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $69 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $58 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $59 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $82 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $60 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $122 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $63 8h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 97¢ $2,144 8h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $60 10h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 97¢ $35 13h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 97¢ $49 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,927.97 · official $13,927.97 (match) · 3500 history records