Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:29:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
36 0x36e7…f307 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$91 (-28%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%3W / 16L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$852now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$634
sports 29% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -25.7% -32.8% 16% 16% +149.4%
≤30d 19 -25.7% -32.8% 16% 16% +149.4%
≤90d 19 -25.7% -32.8% 16% 16% +149.4%
all 19 -25.7% -32.8% 16% 16% +149.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 16% +149.4%
10% -39.2% 16% +125.5%
15% -45.1% 16% +103.8%
20% -50.5% 16% +83.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +176% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +176% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$221 vs −$6 · ×34.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.44 per $1 lost it wins $6.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$852
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses3 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage4d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $205 +$652 +319%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -24%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 $0 -17%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $2 $0 -10%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $38 −$37 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -97%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 +$5 +467%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes $2 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 19¢ $4 2d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $3 2d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $17 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 24¢ $3 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 3d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $852.17 · official $852.17 (match) · 47 history records