Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:36:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
36 0x36e6…ad16 sports 148 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$363 (-1%) realized −$384 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%80W / 66L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$359est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$262
7 days+$68
14 days−$1,628
30 days−$411
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$480
weather 14% −$412
other 7% +$205
crypto 0% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -5.9% -14.9% 62% 58% -8.9%
≤30d 133 -6.6% -15.5% 54% 52% -10.7%
≤90d 146 -6.1% -15.0% 55% 52% -11.3%
all 146 -6.1% -15.0% 55% 52% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 52% -11.3%
10% -23.1% 49% -19.8%
15% -30.6% 44% -27.6%
20% -37.4% 31% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$183 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$384
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses80 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$359
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 148
History coverage43d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 73¢ 97¢ $62 $82 +$21 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$7 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $154 +$74 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $94 +$16 +16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $202 +$104 +52%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $603 +$76 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $182 +$108 +59%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $405 +$262 +65%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $606 +$276 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $406 −$390 -96%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $354 +$220 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $405 −$400 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $333 −$330 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $302 +$109 +36%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $304 +$222 +73%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $912 +$817 +90%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $404 −$188 -46%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $503 +$14 +3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $406 −$400 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $393 +$163 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $606 +$331 +55%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $604 −$598 -99%
Bratislava: Maxim Mrva vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 11 $405 −$301 -74%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $663 +$242 +36%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 10 $304 −$300 -99%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $505 +$241 +48%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $304 −$291 -96%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $304 +$241 +79%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $253 −$250 -99%
Bratislava: Martin Krumich vs Maxim Mrva Jun 09 $254 −$250 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $334 +$235 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $33 −$32 -97%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 09 $152 −$150 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $607 +$338 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? Jun 08 $99 +$217 +219%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $109 −$105 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $202 −$199 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $304 +$213 +70%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 07 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Monaco Jun 07 $56 −$56 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $252 +$110 +44%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 07 $304 +$196 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $18 −$18 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $321 +$97 +30%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $354 +$85 +24%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 06 $252 −$155 -61%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $332 +$101 +30%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $353 +$120 +34%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $303 +$128 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $282 +$40 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $230 −$209 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 21m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 73¢ $22 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 72¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 62¢ $19 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 69¢ $68 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 67¢ $16 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 66¢ $38 27h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 65¢ $202 39h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 94¢ $679 40h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 83¢ $603 41h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 86¢ $26 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 86¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 85¢ $51 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $881 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $606 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 2¢ $16 2d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 60¢ $405 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $406 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 63¢ $56 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.24 · official $82.24 (match) · 503 history records