Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
36 0x36e0…19b9 other 113 markets active 3h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,692 (-28%) realized −$267 · open −$1,425
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%51W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$1,106
other 29% +$146
politics 10% −$577
culture 8% −$165
tech 2% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 24 -67.8% -70.9% 25% 17% -2.7%
≤90d 72 -23.4% -30.7% 42% 36% -7.1%
all 111 -16.2% -24.2% 46% 41% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 41% -15.7%
10% -31.4% 32% -23.8%
15% -38.1% 25% -31.2%
20% -44.1% 19% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$26 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$458
Realized−$267
Unrealized−$1,425
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses51 / 60
Open positions2
Markets (closed)111 / 113
History coverage595d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1,344 $457 −$888 (-66%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 65¢ 0¢ $538 $1 −$537 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $543 +$202 +37%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 26 $7 $0 +2%
Will Malta advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Albania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Lithuania come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Czechia come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 24 $51 −$42 -82%
Will Czechia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Azerbaijan advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Serbia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $354 +$159 +45%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 24 $69 +$3 +4%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? May 20 $40 +$7 +17%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $19 +$9 +48%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $5 +$15 +286%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $31 +$23 +76%
Will Israel win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $10 +$56 +540%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $41 +$63 +154%
Will Sweden be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $21 −$6 -28%
Will Austria come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $21 −$19 -95%
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $16 −$4 -26%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? May 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Albania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$4 -75%
Will Belgium come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$2 -37%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $16 −$6 -42%
Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $20 +$12 +61%
Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $25 +$10 +39%
Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $15 +$2 +14%
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $15 +$10 +64%
Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $30 +$14 +45%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? May 14 $16 $0 +1%
Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $140 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $300 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $135 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $23 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $7 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $10 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $10 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $300 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $6 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $340 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $400 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $745 16d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 21d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $7 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $10 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $340 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $159 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $513 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $74 24d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $72 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $280 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 24d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $48 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $162 27d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $28 27d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 62¢ $19 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $457.78 · official $457.78 (match) · 271 history records