Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36de…4735 sports 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$272 (-10%) realized −$272 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$87
other 20% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -6.1% -15.0% 50% 45% -17.9%
≤30d 20 -6.1% -15.0% 50% 45% -17.9%
≤90d 20 -6.1% -15.0% 50% 45% -17.9%
all 20 -6.1% -15.0% 50% 45% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 45% -17.9%
10% -23.2% 40% -25.8%
15% -30.6% 35% -33.0%
20% -37.4% 15% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$68 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized−$272
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions4
Markets (closed)20 / 24
History coverage4d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 42¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $200 +$67 +33%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $39 +$44 +114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 −$18 -44%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 +$56 +137%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 +$39 +95%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $138 −$138 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $95 +$43 +46%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $103 −$8 -8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $304 +$41 +14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $153 −$140 -92%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $193 +$19 +10%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$39 +39%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $404 −$7 -2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $102 +$36 +36%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 −$48 -48%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $124 +$60 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $51 20m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 21m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 21m
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Jordan 100¢ $267 22m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 25m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 59m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $51 59m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $82 1h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 75¢ $99 1h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 71¢ $102 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 26¢ $23 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $39 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $41 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $41 18h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $41 18h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $138 30h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Cabo Verde 99¢ $138 36h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 66¢ $95 38h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 41¢ $95 38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $102 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $103 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 43¢ $103 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $346 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under $12 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 90¢ $203 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $212 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $141 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 96¢ $91 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.01 · official $200.01 (match) · 47 history records