Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
36 0x36dd…bfcc sports 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$220 (-2%) realized −$225 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%39W / 35L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$119
7 days+$88
14 days+$88
30 days−$1,198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$390
other 5% −$5
politics 3% +$95
culture 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +7.0% -3.1% 56% 56% -6.4%
≤30d 59 -14.7% -22.8% 42% 42% -20.7%
≤90d 74 -6.0% -15.0% 53% 49% -11.8%
all 74 -6.0% -15.0% 53% 49% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 49% -11.8%
10% -23.1% 45% -20.2%
15% -30.5% 36% -27.9%
20% -37.4% 30% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$97 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$225
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses39 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions4
Markets (closed)74 / 78
History coverage36d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 74¢ 86¢ $74 $85 +$11 (+16%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 87¢ 86¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 69¢ 85¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+23%)
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Yes 66¢ 10¢ $13 $2 −$11 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$58 +114%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $199 −$10 -5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$49 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$49 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 +$39 +79%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $49 +$6 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $148 +$86 +58%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 17 $45 +$90 +198%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $99 +$67 +67%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $50 +$48 +97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $85 −$84 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $98 +$66 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $197 −$149 -76%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $98 −$96 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $99 −$98 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $99 −$98 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $99 −$98 -99%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $49 −$49 -99%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $60 +$40 +66%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $59 −$59 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $100 +$98 +98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $50 −$49 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $130 +$103 +79%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $36 −$36 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $14 +$9 +65%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$77 +76%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $40 +$27 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5 Jun 14 $59 +$45 +76%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $100 +$104 +105%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $99 −$98 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $100 +$113 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $50 +$33 +67%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $1,287 −$3 -0%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 25 $9 −$9 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner May 25 $87 −$86 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $401 +$321 +80%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $780 +$392 +50%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 24 $684 −$676 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $117 +$14 +12%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $139 +$160 +115%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $120 −$119 -99%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 23 $181 −$180 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $199 +$64 +32%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 22 $125 +$66 +53%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $19 −$19 -97%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 21 $99 −$54 -54%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 21 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 21 $118 −$118 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 21 $291 −$85 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 87¢ $29 9m
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 86¢ $27 19m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $109 19m
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 87¢ $28 29m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 42¢ $48 39m
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 86¢ $26 39m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $50 48m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 41¢ $46 48m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 41¢ $48 49m
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 87¢ $27 49m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $50 53m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $50 59m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 41¢ $47 59m
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 86¢ $25 59m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $50 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $26 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 86¢ $25 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $26 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 86¢ $24 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $25 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 86¢ $24 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $51 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $25 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 86¢ $23 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $24 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 86¢ $23 2h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $24 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $50 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $50 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 96¢ $89 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.66 · official $138.91 (match) · 339 history records