Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
36 0x36dc…ab3d sports 53 markets active 2d ago coverage 571d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$56 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate15%8W / 45L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$21
other 31% −$6
sports 21% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 18 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 53 -11.3% -19.8% 15% 13% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 13% -10.0%
10% -27.4% 13% -18.6%
15% -34.4% 13% -26.5%
20% -40.9% 13% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$7 · ×4.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

571d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses8 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage571d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $190 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $220 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $150 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $190 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $200 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $210 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $440 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $900 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $230 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $230 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $210 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $210 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $430 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 03 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 03 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $340 −$10 -3%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $340 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $1,180 −$1 -0%
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 27 $1,130 −$1 -0%
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 27 $810 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 26 $420 $0 -0%
Canadiens vs. Blue Jackets Nov 17 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Ducks vs. Blackhawks Oct 21 $17 +$19 +113%
Aces vs. Mercury Oct 19 $19 $0 -2%
Lions vs. Chiefs Oct 15 $10 +$7 +72%
Rays vs. Orioles Sep 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Brewers vs. Padres Sep 23 $7 +$6 +89%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Nationals vs. Marlins Sep 15 $2 +$2 +85%
Astros vs. Yankees Aug 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Xuan Liu win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Aug 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Braves vs. Reds Aug 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Diamondbacks vs. Tigers Jul 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $3 $0 -3%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 10 $2 $0 +4%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will Mircea Geoană win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. Raptors Jan 22 $103 +$116 +113%
Thunder vs. Heat Jan 21 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Dec 13-20? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $190 41h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $220 41h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $439 41h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $440 4d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $190 4d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $220 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $150 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $190 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $509 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $510 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $150 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $190 4d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $200 4d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $210 4d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $440 4d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $440 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $210 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $200 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $190 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $210 5d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $449 5d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $450 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $190 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $210 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $230 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $230 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $389 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $390 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $230 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $230 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records