Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:48:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
36 0x36db…c557 crypto 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+1%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate95%109W / 6L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$5
14 days+$18
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$26
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +0.3% -9.3% 98% 5% -9.2%
≤30d 86 +1.3% -8.3% 98% 7% -9.2%
≤90d 114 +0.9% -8.7% 95% 10% -8.7%
all 115 +0.9% -8.7% 95% 10% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 10% -8.7%
10% -17.4% 3% -17.4%
15% -25.4% 2% -25.4%
20% -32.7% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$15 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses109 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)115 / 115
History coverage134d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 115 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $38 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $27 −$27 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $36 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $33 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $33 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $33 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $32 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $32 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $31 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $31 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $31 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $29 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $27 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $27 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $27 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 264 history records