Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:39:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
36 0x36d9…8360 other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$230 (+4%) realized +$230 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$662
7 days+$922
14 days+$922
30 days+$922
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$876
sports 13% −$264
crypto 9% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +13.0% +2.2% 74% 68% +7.4%
≤30d 19 +13.0% +2.2% 74% 68% +7.4%
≤90d 22 -2.4% -11.7% 64% 59% +1.3%
all 22 -2.4% -11.7% 64% 59% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 59% +1.3%
10% -20.1% 50% -8.4%
15% -27.8% 41% -17.3%
20% -34.9% 27% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$141 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$230
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage85d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $902 +$68 +8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $151 −$150 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 +$76 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 +$111 +73%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $727 +$317 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $401 +$48 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $167 +$115 +69%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $126 +$78 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $375 +$115 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $218 +$124 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $95 +$23 +24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $403 −$328 -81%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $253 +$214 +84%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $255 +$403 +158%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $104 +$12 +12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Mar 28 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 28 $100 −$99 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $801 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $144 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $151 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $227 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $263 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 34¢ $255 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $152 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $152 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 94¢ $1,044 25h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 75¢ $222 25h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $506 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $282 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $15 32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $205 33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $152 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $126 45h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $375 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $343 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $117 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $117 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $95 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 14¢ $76 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $403 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records