Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:29:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
36 0x36d8…d5d2 world 36 markets active 1d ago coverage 297d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%13W / 23L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$5
other 30% $0
sports 21% $0
culture 6% $0
crypto 5% $0
politics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 8 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 0% -7.6%
≤90d 8 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 0% -7.6%
all 36 +0.5% -9.1% 36% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -8.9%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.45 per $1 lost it wins $5.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

297d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses13 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage297d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $46 +$2 +5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $41 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $54 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $13 +$1 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $36 $0 +1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $7 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? Sep 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $7 −$1 -10%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31? Aug 28 $7 $0 +1%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $7 $0 -1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 27 $28 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 26 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 26 $35 $0 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 25 $4 $0 +11%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2025 US Open? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 22 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $26 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $14 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $34 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $5 38h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $6 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $42 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $46 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $35 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $7 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $41 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $35 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $35 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $13 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $13 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $20 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $9 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $9 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $19 6d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 6d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 6d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 6d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 6d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $36 179d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $7 183d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records